{"id":334865,"date":"2026-01-19T11:16:42","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T16:16:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/?post_type=to4_article_post&#038;p=334865"},"modified":"2026-01-19T11:16:45","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T16:16:45","slug":"a-tech-bro-think-tank-is-trying-to-roll-back-evidence-based-homelessness-policy","status":"publish","type":"to4_article_post","link":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/articles\/a-tech-bro-think-tank-is-trying-to-roll-back-evidence-based-homelessness-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"A Tech Bro Think Tank Is Trying to Roll Back Evidence-Based Homelessness Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"truth-post-content-before\" id=\"truth-2016272459\"><div class=\"callout callout inline-callout mb-5 callout--text callout--text\" id=\"truth-304216\" data-callout-id=\"304216\" data-callout-theme=\"text\" data-callout-placement=\"Undefined\" data-callout-title=\"BCB 304216 Honest, paywall-free news is rare...\"><p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Honest, paywall-free news is rare. Please support our boldly independent journalism with <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/support.truthout.org\/-\/XXQLBDSX\/&amp;utm_source=truthout&amp;utm_medium=bcb&amp;utm_campaign=304216\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">a donation<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of any size.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p>Last fall, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) nearly triggered a homelessness disaster of its own making. A rush of policy changes that were rolled out with almost no warning and even less guidance <a href=\"https:\/\/nlihc.org\/resource\/trump-administration-releases-coc-funding-notice-drastically-cutting-funding-permanent\">threatened to push up to 170,000 formerly unhoused Americans out of stable housing<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The strangest part? Much of this upheaval traces back to a little-known think tank that was born in Silicon Valley.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ciceroinstitute.org\/\">The Cicero Institute<\/a>, created by tech investor Joe Lonsdale, has spent the past few years promoting aggressive policies targeting encampments for the unhoused and pushing cities to move away from Housing First, the U.S.\u2019s primary model for responding to chronic homelessness. Over the summer, HUD quietly adopted several of Cicero\u2019s key recommendations. And the result was widespread panic among the local agencies responsible for keeping people housed.<\/p><div class=\"truth-post-content-high\" id=\"truth-1362988360\"><div class=\"callout inline-callout p-4 mb-5 callout--subscribe callout--light\" id=\"truth-255392\" data-callout-id=\"255392\" data-callout-theme=\"light\" data-callout-placement=\"Post Content - High\" data-callout-title=\"Never miss another story\"><h4>Never miss another story<\/h4>\n<p>Get the news you want, delivered to your inbox every day.<\/p>\n<script>\nvar gform;gform||(document.addEventListener(\"gform_main_scripts_loaded\",function(){gform.scriptsLoaded=!0}),document.addEventListener(\"gform\/theme\/scripts_loaded\",function(){gform.themeScriptsLoaded=!0}),window.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",function(){gform.domLoaded=!0}),gform={domLoaded:!1,scriptsLoaded:!1,themeScriptsLoaded:!1,isFormEditor:()=>\"function\"==typeof 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   });        } else {            triggerPostRender();        }    } );} );\n<\/script>\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Meet the Tech-Bro Think Tank Redesigning Homelessness Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Joe Lonsdale, best known as a founding partner of Palantir and a member of the original \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/2025\/jan\/26\/elon-musk-peter-thiel-apartheid-south-africa\">PayPal Mafia<\/a>,\u201d created the Cicero Institute in 2016 to inject what he calls \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/joelonsdale.com\/\">entrepreneurial thinking<\/a>\u201d into government. The group operates on a roughly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomsbury.com\/uk\/gilded-rage-9781399419987\/\">$10 million annual budget that is financed by undisclosed donors<\/a>, and its board is dominated by Lonsdale\u2019s family members, other entrepreneurs, and political staffers. Its messaging leans heavily on the idea that homelessness persists not because of poverty or a shortage of affordable housing, but because service providers are enabling poor behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On his social media accounts, Lonsdale warns of a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/JTLonsdale\/status\/1989783322784911579\">homeless industrial complex<\/a>\u201d supposedly enriching itself through failed policies. That claim is not grounded in evidence, nor does it match the reality I\u2019ve seen after eight years interviewing and observing frontline service workers in the homeless sector. If anything, the people running U.S. homeless shelters and supportive housing programs are overworked, underpaid, and overwhelmed by needs that far exceed their funding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet Cicero\u2019s arguments have found a national platform through the work of <a href=\"https:\/\/ciceroinstitute.org\/people\/devon-kurtz\/\">Devon Kurtz<\/a>, the organization\u2019s \u201cpublic safety policy director.\u201d Kurtz has a background in classics and criminology, but there is no evidence of any experience working in U.S. homelessness systems, according to his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/devon-m-kurtz\/\">LinkedIn profile<\/a>. Despite this, he has become a frequent commentator, urging lawmakers to <a href=\"https:\/\/ciceroinstitute.org\/news-media\/missouri-camping-ban-could-give-cities-opportunity-to-direct-homeless-people-to-support\/\">ban encampments<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/ciceroinstitute.org\/research\/involuntary-civil-commitment\/\">expand involuntary psychiatric commitment<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/ciceroinstitute.org\/news-media\/floridas-homeless-need-treatment-first-not-housing-first\/\">move unhoused people into transitional housing<\/a> programs with strict behavioral requirements, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.city-journal.org\/article\/us-interagency-council-on-homelessness-usich-trump\">dismantle key federal institutions that design homelessness policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The proposals are sweeping. The evidence behind them is thin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Campaign Against Housing First<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/endhomelessness.org\/resources\/toolkits-and-training-materials\/housing-first\/\">Cicero\u2019s preferred target is Housing First<\/a>, a model adopted by the George W. Bush administration and expanded under both Barack Obama and Donald Trump, during the latter\u2019s first term. Housing First prioritizes moving chronically unhoused people into permanent housing without requiring sobriety or treatment upfront. The model rests on <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/30777888\/\">numerous randomized controlled trials<\/a>, which find that people stay housed at far higher rates and reduce consumption of some costly emergency services when basic stability comes first. By contrast, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanpub\/article\/PIIS2468-2667(20)30055-4\/fulltext\">evidence for mental health, income, and employment impacts shows no advantage for the conditional services<\/a> that Cicero advocates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ciceroinstitute.org\/research\/why-americas-homelessness-strategy-failed-and-how-to-fix-it\/\">Kurtz argues that Housing First has \u201cfailed,\u201d<\/a> pointing to rising numbers of unsheltered people over the past decade. But this argument misuses the data in several ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For one, \u201cpermanent supportive housing\u201d is the closest thing to Housing First that the federal government provides homeless service recipients. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hudexchange.info\/homelessness-assistance\/coc-esg-virtual-binders\/coc-program-components\/permanent-housing\/permanent-supportive-housing\/\">That program  wasn\u2019t designed to end <em>all<\/em> homelessness<\/a>. It was specifically created for \u201cchronically\u201d homeless households who have been unhoused for at least 12 months and who have a documented disability. Rising unsheltered homelessness, by contrast, has been driven largely by soaring rent costs, the expiration of pandemic-era protections, and insufficient supply of emergency shelter, not Housing First.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s also the question of outcomes. HUD tracks Housing First retention each year, and the results are consistent: Since 2015, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hudexchange.info\/resource\/5691\/system-performance-measures-data-since-fy-2015\/\">roughly 90 to 95 percent of people in these programs remain housed<\/a>. If chronic homelessness is rising, the problem is not that Housing First \u201cdoesn\u2019t work.\u201d The problem instead is that there aren\u2019t enough preventative services to keep people housed during crises or sufficient rental subsidies for people who have been unhoused for less than 12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, <a href=\"https:\/\/ciceroinstitute.org\/research\/why-americas-homelessness-strategy-failed-and-how-to-fix-it\/\">Cicero frequently cites outlier studies to suggest Housing First is dangerous, ineffective, or too expensive<\/a>. These studies are often based on narrow samples, misapplied to the wrong populations, or interpreted in ways the original authors explicitly warn against. The broader research consensus is clear: Housing First works extremely well for the population it serves. What it cannot do is counteract years of rising rents, stagnating wages, catastrophic shortages of affordable housing, and the collapse of political will to end homelessness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">HUD Adopts Cicero\u2019s Playbook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Cicero Institute\u2019s advocacy department, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsfromthestates.com\/article\/billionaire-backed-think-tank-pushed-homeless-crackdowns-elsewhere-hires-veteran-nm?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">\u201cCicero Action,\u201d has employed \u201chigh-powered\u201d lobbyists to push its agenda<\/a> in states around the country. Cicero Action, for example, hired Alfred Parks, a former state representative, and a corporate lobbyist, Jason Weaks, in New Mexico to advance model bills that criminalize homelessness and redirect funding from permanent to transitional housing programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After passing its model legislation in red states like <a href=\"https:\/\/ciceroinstitute.org\/news-media\/confronting-homelessness\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Florida<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/dc-md-va\/2023\/12\/22\/rights-war-housing-first-lands-middle-america\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Missouri<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/10\/29\/us\/politics\/utah-trump-homeless-campus.html\">Utah<\/a>, it appears the Cicero Institute has expanded its influence to the federal government. In July 2025, President Trump issued an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/presidential-actions\/2025\/07\/ending-crime-and-disorder-on-americas-streets\/\">executive order<\/a> directing HUD to shift federal homelessness funding away from permanent housing and toward transitional housing and encampment enforcement. And HUD has quickly moved to comply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Federal contracts that were supposed to run through 2026 were abruptly cut short. A new funding notice, released in mid-November, gave local agencies just months to redesign their entire homelessness systems, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.huduser.gov\/portal\/datasets\/ahar\/2024-ahar-part-1-pit-estimates-of-homelessness-in-the-us.html\">which took over 10 years to build<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The notice leaned heavily on the same weak evidence that Cicero uses. <a href=\"https:\/\/capolicylab.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Health-Conditions-Among-Unsheltered-Adults-in-the-US.pdf\">HUD cited a non-representative survey from 15 states<\/a> to justify claims that most unsheltered people have severe mental illness or addiction, despite the study\u2019s own authors warning against using their data to generalize about causes. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hudexchange.info\/resource\/5691\/system-performance-measures-data-since-fy-2015\/\">HUD suggested Housing First had failed, even though the agency\u2019s own metrics belied that claim<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Local administrators were stunned. I conducted 12 interviews with local administrators across the country over the past three months. My contacts would only speak to me under the condition of anonymity due to fear of political retaliation from HUD. The administrators I spoke to described HUD\u2019s abrupt change as chaotic, reckless, illegal, dangerous, and impossible to carry out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYou\u2019re talking about historical supporting of permanent supportive housing,\u201d one administrator said, \u201cand essentially giving us eight months to wind those down. That\u2019s not enough time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to this unrealistic deadline, most administrators would have to make those reforms with less funding and, as a result, fewer staff to deliver the intensive case management that HUD is now demanding. \u201cThere are some many consequences to this on down the road that they\u2019re not looking that far ahead,\u201d another administrator said. \u201cThey are not looking at, \u2018If we cut this, how do other services pick that up,\u2019 because we don\u2019t have those services and they aren\u2019t giving us the money to create those services.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recently announced <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/01\/14\/nx-s1-5677104\/trump-administration-letter-terminating-addiction-mental-health-grants\">$2 billion cuts to community-based mental health and substance abuse treatment<\/a> will exacerbate this crisis by shrinking, if not eliminating, the case management agencies that deliver the kind of support HUD expects homeless service users to receive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lynnwoodtimes.com\/2025\/11\/25\/continuum-of-care\/\">A lawsuit was quickly filed to thwart disaster<\/a>. Ninety minutes before its court hearing, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2025\/12\/08\/hud-temporarily-pauses-homelessness-funding-overhaul-00682015?_hsenc=p2ANqtz--COBWZVhZIn4afa8YnrBtXWKEMbLw4KufVU45IOY9JzZWlAcKT3WMKa4IQp5omKhKqR-tBfeAAFEoCzJgQUIq6SCknQF1JeVd_KEUReis_z2z9qoE&amp;_hsmi=393641311&amp;utm_campaign=KHN:+Daily+Health+Policy+Report&amp;utm_content=393641311&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=hs_email\">HUD abruptly withdrew the funding notice<\/a> until problems could be worked out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Damage Isn\u2019t Over<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though HUD pulled back its proposal, the uncertainty it created has already strained homelessness systems that were stretched thin long before this episode. With another winter underway and the threat of policy whiplash still looming, governors cannot afford to wait and see what happens next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nlihc.org\/resource\/trump-administration-releases-coc-funding-notice-drastically-cutting-funding-permanent\">Roughly a third of contracts were ending between January and June 2026<\/a>. A large number of people would therefore lose their rental assistance in the dead of winter if HUD followed through with this disastrous policy. This will cause unsheltered homelessness to spike at a time when emergency shelters already cannot meet demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, states used <a href=\"https:\/\/evictionlab.org\/covid-era-policies-cut-eviction-filings-by-more-than-half\/\">eviction moratoriums, utility shutoff protections<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/policy-issues\/coronavirus\/assistance-for-state-local-and-tribal-governments\/emergency-rental-assistance-program\">and emergency rental assistance<\/a> to keep millions of people housed. They may need to use these tools again if HUD continues to pursue abrupt policy shifts without adequate planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thousands of people are depending on them to act before the next crisis hits.<\/p>\n<div class=\"truth-post-content-after\" id=\"truth-2487090599\"><div class=\"callout inline-callout p-4 mb-5 callout-- callout--white\" id=\"truth-334871\" data-callout-id=\"334871\" data-callout-theme=\"white\" data-callout-placement=\"Post Content - After\" data-callout-title=\"2026-01 Main Campaign (FRU) Trump is silencing political dissent. We appeal for your support.\">\n<div class=\"p-2 text-start\">\n<h5 class=\"pb-2\" style=\"text-transform: uppercase; font-family: var(--bs-font-sans-serif); text-align: center;\">Trump is silencing political dissent. We appeal for your support.<\/h5>\n<p class=\"mb-3\" style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Progressive nonprofits are the latest target caught in Trump\u2019s crosshairs. With the aim of eliminating political opposition, Trump and his sycophants are working to curb government funding, constrain private foundations, and even cut tax-exempt status from organizations he dislikes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-3\" style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>We\u2019re concerned, because Truthout is not immune to such bad-faith attacks.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-3\" style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We can only resist Trump\u2019s attacks by cultivating a strong base of support. The right-wing mediasphere is funded comfortably by billionaire owners and venture capitalist philanthropists. At Truthout, we have you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-3\" style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Truthout has launched a fundraiser to raise $45,000 in the next 8 days. <\/strong>Please take a meaningful action in the fight against authoritarianism: make a one-time or monthly donation to Truthout. If you have the means, please dig deep.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"m-0\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"#XEGQPXGY\" style=\"display: none;\"><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Housing First policies are being replaced with punitive reforms that could push 170,000 people back into homelessness.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":86,"featured_media":334916,"menu_order":0,"template":"","categories":[91699],"tags":[225389,6509,2191,184,230210,3783,34601,178800],"section":[44],"primary_topic":[35],"series":[],"admin_tag":[],"class_list":["post-334865","to4_article_post","type-to4_article_post","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-analysis","tag-cicero-institute","tag-department-of-housing-and-urban-development","tag-homelessness","tag-housing","tag-housing-first","tag-hud","tag-palantir","tag-unhoused-people","section-politics-and-elections","primary_topic-politics"],"acf":[],"related_articles":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/to4_article_post\/334865","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/to4_article_post"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/to4_article_post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/86"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/334916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=334865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=334865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=334865"},{"taxonomy":"section","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/section?post=334865"},{"taxonomy":"primary_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/primary_topic?post=334865"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/series?post=334865"},{"taxonomy":"admin_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truthout.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/admin_tag?post=334865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}